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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

Yet this year's competition is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still